Dom, I went through the early '80's oil patch shut down. I watched brand new rigs in Midland/Odessa being torched for scrap. The cause then was the lowering of the max tax rate from 70 to 50. Back then you did not hit 10 out of 10 wells you drilled. Uncle Sam paid 70% of the loss on dry ones and when it went to 50-50 drilling did not make since. Our house was appraised in 1983 for $185,000 (in 1983 dollars) and in 1994 we took $105,000 and felt real lucky. Now it is supply and demand. EXXON just spent 30 billion buying leases in Midland so it WILL come back. When? I'd be a billionaire if I knew that answer. I am in the process of gathering funds to buy some of the higher dollar houses in the Midland area, hold and resell when the upturn comes. And it will. Need deep pockets to wait out the storm.
There isn't a single rig drilling in Arkansas now. SWN shut down all operations until the market gets better. The Calfrac district out of Arkansas (that I worked for) just closed it's doors yesterday. So, things aren't getting any better I've pretty much decided to go in a different direction until things turn around. I heard of guys with 25 years experience interviewing for entry level spots at Calfrac in San Antonio.
That is probably so. The price drop was more dramatic and tons more people working in the industry this time. I know the one in the '80's killed a lot of business but as I said, this one had many more folks working than back then. Can tell you one thing, them that got the staying power will own the world. Can you imagine buying (cheap) 100 drilling rigs and just sitting on them? I believe with deep pockets a million dollars could easily be turned into 20 million. Just how long can one let his money sit? Of course, the return on money in the banks is so low that a 5 year loss would be negligible compared to the upside.
I hasten to say, the laborers are the ones taking it on the chin. They are the ones that will suffer the most. The big guys will go broke and start over whereas the working folks do not always have that option.
We're still drilling in Odessa but of course not as much. There is 75+ rigs still stacked up at there yards at this hard time we're hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.
I fear the best hope for the drilling industry is disruption of shipping and production in the Middle East. At least for the near future. This Obama nuke deal with Iran puts 2 million more barrels on the market immediately. Now if Saudi jumps on Iran and a couple of other countries production falls apart because of war then there is near term hope. Otherwise my friends I do not believe I will be around by the time the world wide economy becomes robust again----if it ever does. On a brighter note for me----the DFW real estate market is booming. Average days of the market for houses is 8 days. 16% jump in value last year. Just renewed my RE sales license in order to catch the upside. That is why and where I am looking for seed money to go to Midland to buy some high end houses for pennies on the dollar. Hold, rent and resale. My former partner said the way to spell opportunity is "problem". Someone else's problem is always an opportunity. Midland/Odessa is booming with problems so the opportunity is there for the right, deep pocket patient investor.
Oil fell below $27 a barrel yesterday. I have a feeling it won't be much longer and the rest of the economy will start to feel it because of the low prices. Don't get me wrong I like the cheap prices at the pump but that WILL change in the future. So, don't get to used to it people.
That's bc KFC is freakin expensive for preformed chicken shaped grease. Sent from my SPH-L520 using Tapatalk