bleak outlook...

Just like like a book it's got to come down from a climax sooner or latter then it's back up!

LETS QUIT BUYING SHI# FROM CHINA!
 
We're in for a rough ride this year. Buying from China would help but only if we make sure to buy American made instead. Here's the rub. American made is more expensive due to high labor cost and if we are in a recession, people can not afford to pay more. The American middle class is becoming extinct and that is not good for this country. A recession is coming, it's only a matter of exactly when.
 
ChrisAZ said:
We're in for a rough ride this year. Buying from China would help but only if we make sure to buy American made instead. Here's the rub. American made is more expensive due to high labor cost and if we are in a recession, people can not afford to pay more. The American middle class is becoming extinct and that is not good for this country. A recession is coming, it's only a matter of exactly when.
Click to expand...


as of now, we are a hair away from becommin a third world country........
 
Yep. One way to tell a thrid world country is the lack of a middle class. All haves and have nots. We're on our way.
 
ChrisAZ said:
We're in for a rough ride this year. Buying from China would help but only if we make sure to buy American made instead. Here's the rub. American made is more expensive due to high labor cost and if we are in a recession, people can not afford to pay more. The American middle class is becoming extinct and that is not good for this country. A recession is coming, it's only a matter of exactly when.
Click to expand...

Some resources say we are in a recession now:( The December retail spending is an indicator of this. It takes some time to determine if we are in a recession so in three months when they say we are you can believe we have been in one for a while.

I for one have not cut back my spending at all, but I can understand why most of the populous has. I agree that the middle class is getting pinched. According to the IRS I am not in the middle class, but i never complain about the taxes I pay. I'm a very small minority but I make some money and don't like the tax package that Bush as given me and others like me.

One thing that i read is right on this point. I recently read an interview with Rupert Murdoch about the tax rate he pays against what his secretary pays. Was kind of interesting. He pays a lower marginal rate than his much lower paid employee. Of course he pays more in gross taxes but why would his marginal rate be so much lower? For those that are going to try and support trckle down economics please don't. That theory has been proven so wrong on many fronts.

-jeff
 
Economic cycles are to be expected but the magnitude of the variations must be managed by fiscal policy, strategic planning, governmental and personal discipline.

The problem with down turns in the economy is that it is the little people that get hurt the most. Those with significant assets may lose some net worth but not their homes, their life style will change a little, but life goes on as usual for the most part.

On the other end of the scale, in the lower middle class or lowest economic levels...life changes and in some cases is endangered.

Jobs are lost at the lower levels of our economy...when a job is lost, all of the elements of existence change...all of the fundamental needs are no longer available...truly: food, clothing and shelter are at risk...this is the lowest level of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs and loss of those things is a horrible ordeal, but those are the levels of our society that don't have a voice and their suffering is largely unnoticed.

The middle class suffers through the economic problems...and they loose assets and then when the cycle turns around, once again work their way back...the long term effect on the middle class is that some never get back into the middle class...they give up and become unmotivated and perpetual lower economic dwellers. The middle class that do work their way back never really recover fully from recession...time is what allows assets to appreciate...when you lose time...as all of us did in the early 2000's...you never get that compounding time back...it is just gone...

This recession and make no mistake we are in one...may well be a long harsh one.

But this will not be anything compared to the issues we will face when we decide to address the issues of the national debt...

Hunker down folks...it may be a long cold winter...fire wood would be a good investment at this juncture.
 
Last edited:
BriteCrawler said:
Prof, what are your thoughts on fair / flat taxes?
Click to expand...


At the urging of Marc, I have done a lot of reading about it in the past week. I am impressed with the concept...I am worried about the percentage calculation, but that is a very complicated issue...

Bottom line for me...good concept...but I do not think that implementors will be able to avoid the special interest groups that will try to carve out their own little shelters. I have trouble with how it would be possible to compensate the lower income people with the stipend...and I most of all think that a change of the magnitude proposed would be incredibly hard to accomplish...I anticipate that if it is tried...it will take five years to plan and another two or three to implement.

Since the term of office is four years...if the above planning horizon is correct, there is no way to undertake the initiative without a huge amount of political consensus and all three branches of the government will have to commit to the philosophy...

I would love to see the process undertaken, but I doubt we can get it together enough to get out of the starting blocks.

But something has to be done...
 
Prof said:
At the urging of Marc, I have done a lot of reading about it in the past week. I am impressed with the concept...I am worried about the percentage calculation, but that is a very complicated issue...

Bottom line for me...good concept...but I do not think that implementors will be able to avoid the special interest groups that will try to carve out their own little shelters. I have trouble with how it would be possible to compensate the lower income people with the stipend...and I most of all think that a change of the magnitude proposed would be incredibly hard to accomplish...I anticipate that if it is tried...it will take five years to plan and another two or three to implement.

Since the term of office is four years...if the above planning horizon is correct, there is no way to undertake the initiative without a huge amount of political consensus and all three branches of the government will have to commit to the philosophy...

I would love to see the process undertaken, but I doubt we can get it together enough to get out of the starting blocks.

But something has to be done...
Click to expand...

Glad you took the time to read up on it Roy!!

I agree with you on the stumbling blocks, there is alot of obstacles. I do feel it is worth trying. Anything is better than our system in place now.

The biggest obstacle will be the politicians who rely on raising taxes to fund thier political agendas.:mad:
 
Nothing is wrong guys. The united states is a Captilistic economy. Inflation is under control and Unemployment is at 5 percent. Its the housing market that is having a ripple effect on everything else. We are in a cyclical downturn. And we will recover and become a growing economy Again
 
Looks like they figured out a way to hold onto your money just a little longer this year too. Think about how much money we are talking about the government getting to hold on to for an extra month or more.

IRS officials are helping people who are confused about tax filing delays.

1. I've heard that I can't file my tax return until Feb. 11. Why not?

Answer: Most taxpayers can go ahead and file now with no delays. However, due to late legislation, the IRS is having to reprogram its computers to process forms related to the Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Tax returns claiming Education Credits, Residential Energy Credits, the Mortgage Interest Credit or the Credit for Child and Dependent Care Expenses (using Form 1040A, Schedule 2) will not be processed until Feb. 11, 2008.
 
ChrisAZ said:
We're in for a rough ride this year. Buying from China would help but only if we make sure to buy American made instead. Here's the rub. American made is more expensive due to high labor cost and if we are in a recession, people can not afford to pay more. The American middle class is becoming extinct and that is not good for this country. A recession is coming, it's only a matter of exactly when.
Click to expand...

Spot on.
 
jelms said:
One thing that i read is right on this point. I recently read an interview with Rupert Murdoch (Owner of FOX) about the tax rate he pays against what his secretary pays. Was kind of interesting. He pays a lower marginal rate than his much lower paid employee. Of course he pays more in gross taxes but why would his marginal rate be so much lower? For those that are going to try and support trckle down economics please don't. That theory has been proven so wrong on many fronts.

-jeff
Click to expand...

Hey Jeff, are you sure it was Rupert Murdoch, and not Warren Buffet? Don't get me wrong, I completely agree with what you are saying here! I just think Rupert Murdoch doesn't really give a SH*T what his secretary pays in taxes.

And Annu, please get your head out of the clouds, (No offense) this isn't going to fix itself, we need REAL leaders to help fix this problem we are facing!
 
Annu Kumar said:
Nothing is wrong guys. The united states is a Captilistic economy. Inflation is under control and Unemployment is at 5 percent. Its the housing market that is having a ripple effect on everything else. We are in a cyclical downturn. And we will recover and become a growing economy Again
Click to expand...

Appreciate the giggle.
 
HDVIPER said:
Hey Jeff, are you sure it was Rupert Murdoch, and not Warren Buffet? Don't get me wrong, I completely agree with what you are saying here! I just think Rupert Murdoch doesn't really give a SH*T what his secretary pays in taxes.
Click to expand...


I believe I heard the same thing that Jeff did...Rupert Murdoch...but I also agree that it sounds more like a Warren Buffet or Jack Welch comment...
 
Prof said:
Economic cycles are to be expected but the magnitude of the variations must be managed by fiscal policy, strategic planning, governmental and personal discipline.

.....
Click to expand...

Very well stated, Roy. We are WAY over due for a recession..... We "dodged" it in 2001.... and I think that fact will only make it worse this time around. :(
 
I saw also that 2008 will be the killer year for recession also.. I have been following things quite religiously...

My opinions on the subject that are killing the economy are (I probably missed some... also)

1. Companies off shoring work to India, Mexico, etc.. taking away american jobs.

2. Corporate executives that are cheating and scamming the system (Enron, MCI, WorldCom, etc..those types)

3. Housing Market slump.

4. Rising Interest rates.

5. Rising fuel and energy costs

5. Retail sale slump ( attributed to layoffs, energy costs, etc..)

All of these (and others) together spell disaster...
 
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